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Silver Lining

By Junefe Payot, ICSI

The latest pastoral letter of the Roman Catholic Church, signed by Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) president Archbishop Fernando Capalla, says that the elections season has been poisoned by cynicism and pessimism. Indeed, this cynicism is fed by, and clearly manifested in the mudslinging that is all over the papers and news programs. Gloomy scenarios of this or that candidate’s presidency are painted. This not-so-productive exchange is particularly true between the supporters of the two front-runners, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and actor Fernando Poe Jr., more popularly known as FPJ.

But how about looking at the more positive scenarios? What if the candidates are not what their detractors paint them to be? What if the two leading candidates are not what skeptics fear they would be when they become president? How are they going to be as president? Given the seemingly hopeless state and harsh realities of Philippine politics, it is difficult – even naïve – to be positive. But let us give it a try and see.

The Queen

Being the incumbent, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has to fend off attacks from all sides. The other five candidates are one in saying that there is an overwhelming need for change in government. Among other things, they say that Arroyo’s government is corrupt, that she is protecting her husband and associates from prosecution, and that she is a master politician who is unprincipled because she flip-flops on every issue just to keep her hold on power.

Maybe it is really the lingering question about the legitimacy of her government that keeps her government and her stand on issues shaky. But if given a stronger mandate, with no legitimacy baggage forcing her to prioritise consolidation of power in her decisions, she maybe able to act more decisively, with stronger convictions, on various issues including the alleged involvement of her husband and other close associates to corruption. If elected for a six-year term she might just become the reformer that people had been hoping she would be.

Indeed, Arroyo now knows that people are watching her every move and are expecting her to be tough even on her close associates and relatives. For instance, surveys conducted after the Jose Pidal exposé showed that most people believe that the First Gentlemen Mike arroyo was involved in some kind of illegal activity even as they expressed distrust for Senator Lacson who made the exposé. So the pressure on her now has never been stronger. And that is good for the country.

As for the perceived socio-economic stagnation of the country during her three years in office, it might be because she inherited a very corrupt government and an ailing economy that is plagued by a lack of investor confidence. And three years may not have been enough to recover from them. Besides, any program will have to take years before people really feel its fruits. Maybe we’ll reap those fruits in her next six years.

In fact, for us working in the social development field, it cannot be denied that Arroyo, with the help of civil society, started various programs and accomplished something, no matter how little, in her three-year stint. In complete contrast to her predecessor deposed president Joseph Estrada, she is perceived to be a workaholic who keeps a very tight schedule everyday.

In the process, she has probably done more to improve the lives of the urban and rural poor than Estrada did. For instance, spending for the Agriculture and Fisheries Modernisation Act (AFMA) has reached P72.57 billion so far, and irrigated areas totalled 629,911 hectares, the biggest in history. Also from January 2001 to December 2003, security of tenure was granted to 280,932 informal settlers through Presidential Proclamations and the Community Mortgage Program. In the same period, 142,450 households from the bottom 30% of the income population were provided housing and slum upgrading services.

Thus, if Arroyo is elected for a full term, people will certainly see a continuation of these programs. And her experience, including her mistakes, will certainly be her asset here. On the other hand, what she has started is sure to go to waste if another administration takes over and starts its new programs. Isn’t lack of continuation in government programs one of the major reasons that experts have been citing for the country’s failure to truly experience sustained growth?

Da King

Most articles and commentaries in the papers paint a gloomy picture of a Poe presidency. One columnist even “wrote” an article titled, “A list of things this country may look forward to over the next six years, from 2004 to 2010, under the administration of President Fernando Poe Jr. and Vice President Noli de Castro.” The title was followed by a blank space to mean that the Philippines may be going nowhere with Poe as president.

The fear is fed by the perception that Poe is an inexperienced candidate being manipulated by traditional politicians who are only out to accumulate wealth and power for themselves. Add to that his close association with Estrada.

But what if Poe becomes president and proves to all that he is not the automaton of traditional politicians that his detractors say he will be? Who knows, Senators Edgardo Angara and Vicente Sotto III may be in for a big surprise when they see Poe make his own decisions. People after all are individuals who have their own minds. More so in the case of a person who has made it big in showbiz, a world where only the toughest survives. His inexperience in politics may just prove to be an asset in unifying people from various factions since people tend to trust those who are not perceived to be hungry for power.

If Poe can translate into good use his supposedly excellent managerial and entrepreneurial skills which built one of the more successful film production outfits in the country, and if the supposedly powerhouse economic team he assembled is going to do its job of assisting him, we might just experience a socio-economic renaissance. And with the help of a united people, this should not be too difficult to achieve.

The poor, supposedly his support-base as surveys have consistently shown, will stand to benefit the most from this renaissance. For hasn’t Poe been consistently projecting himself as the champion of the poor?

When he launched his campaign at the jam-packed Cuneta Astrodome, he called poverty “the biggest scandal in the country” and defined the biggest problem facing the country as “breakfast, lunch, dinner.” Indeed, he nailed it right in the head. At least one-third of the population live below the poverty line, thus the program that should be given priority is to put food on the table of every family.

Poe has touted himself as an action person because, according to him, he’d rather work than talk. He declined to join the presidential debates because these might be use to bolster the candidacy of other presidentiables instead of being a venue for presenting the platforms of government of each party. That may not be a good reason to decline the very important presidential debates but that also gives us hope we will have someone who will engage less in rhetoric and more in work once elected president. As Poe himself said, he was able to “build [his] companies not by talking but by working.” And that exactly is how you build a nation: more action, less rhetoric.

Let us just hope that Poe will not turn out to be another Estrada who did not really do much in terms of alleviating poverty even though he projected himself as pro-poor, that Poe will not merely visit the poor on Christmas and his birthday to hand out dole-outs.

Finally, if Poe is the honest man – and there is no reason to think otherwise – that he and his supporters say he is, then maybe we will see the end of corruption, one of the reasons for the continued poverty of a huge part of our population. Only an incorruptible president can eliminate corruption.

Life goes on

Perhaps the scenarios painted above are too positive for comfort. But at least they offer an alternative to a rather negative atmosphere. Pessimism and cynicism are not bad but they are good only up to a point.

These are only scenarios and writing them may have been a foolish if not a boring exercise because one can never really tell what will happen next. One thing is sure though: who ever becomes president, life will go on for the 85 million Filipinos. And who ever becomes president, it is the Filipino people, not the government, who will play the most crucial role in the development of the country. And for us in the development work, there is still a lot to accomplish and we have to go on. We need to continue finding ways of working productively with whoever is in Malacañang in our work for the marginalized.

In the mean time, while waiting for that day in May, let us listen to what the candidates have to say with a more positive outlook. Elections are supposed to offer us hope instead of the pessimism that often pervades the season.

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